Monday, April 29, 2002

There are two interesting economics articles in The Guardian today. The first, by Larry Elliot, is on the prospects for the UK economy and its over-heating housing market. Elliot makes the sensible point that the UK economy is prone to disaster when everything is looking rosy, and it’s unlikely it’ll avoid it this time. The housing market will probably lead the charge.

The second by Will Hutton is less good. There are many sensible things to be said about the comparison between the European and US economies, and most of them to correct the belief of recent years that the US economy is perfect and to be copied. Unfortunately Hutton as usual doesn’t make them. Instead he takes two of the (the two?) most-admired European companies, Nokia and VW, compares them with two US firms, GM and Ford, whom are not and bases his case for the entire continent on them. Then he brings out GDP per hour worked statistics, which in almost all the examples he mentions, are somewhat meaningless given their respective countries’ high unemployment levels. The left used to make this point during the Thatcher years – calling it the cricket average problem – if you only send out your openers; you’ll have a higher average score. And you’ll lose the game.