Wednesday, July 31, 2002

US Gdp grew just 0.1% in Q2'02, sharply down from Q1'02's rate of 5%, in itself sharply down from original estimates of 6.1%. Perhaps more fundamentally the recession of 2001 was a real enought recession, growth fell in 3 quarters (all except the last). The original esimate had growth only falling in one quarter.

What does this mean? Well for share prices it's hard to say. The obvious answer is bad news -- the New Economy seems less and less impressive with each revision, and share prices still price in a bit of New Economy productivity growth. But perhaps perversely share prices might rally on the news -- the puzzle why companies were doing so badly in a growing economy has been resolved. The economy wasn't growing. Therefore if the economy recovers, one is perhaps more confident that company profits should recover too.

Well, at least that's what your fund manager will tell you....