Matt T

In the comment to my article below begining 'Will the Conservatives...', Peter Cuthbertson takes me to task for saying that to win a majority the Tories need to lead Labour in the opinion polls by 11%, and even to be the largest party 7%. He suggests I mean a swing. Sadly for Peter and the Conservatives, I don't. I mean a LEAD. That is how biased the electoral system is. In fact if you look at the table (sorry about the formatting -- it reads from left to right Cons share of vote, lab share of vote, cons majority, lab majority)I actually underestimated the problem -- it's a 12% lead for a majoirty of 1. If the parties are level-pegging, and remember that has only happened in the opinon polls once since 1992, Labour romp home with a 79-seat majority (obviously factors such as the Lib Dems and turnout can alter these forecasts, but probably not by much).

The question is -- why aren't the Tories making a song and dance about this and demanding electoral reform? I think there are two reasons -- 1) They just don't realise. Every Labour activist I have met tells me that they are told this in briefings about their Gen Election strategy. This doesn't seem the case with the Tories. 2) It's been years (about 12) since the Tories dared to propose anything new, and certainly when it comes to constitutional issues they are almost always fighting to retain the status quo despite its imperfections. Nowhere has their conservatism been so conservative as with respect to our electoral system, despite the clear need for some change. I think their fear of seeing radical overhaul prevents them even demanding necessary reform.

Either way - they ain't going to win the next election. Or they might win it in votes, but they sure won't win it in seats.

Cons Lab Cons Maj Lab Maj
30.7 41.7 -339 175
31.7 40.7 -327 167
32.7 39.7 -305 153
33.7 38.7 -291 141
34.7 37.7 -263 117
35.7 36.7 -243 99
36.2 36.2 -221 79
36.7 35.7 -195 55
37.7 34.7 -161 23
38.2 34.2 -133 -3
38.7 33.7 -111 -25
39.7 32.7 -85 -47
40.7 31.7 -59 -73
41.7 30.7 -29 -101
42.2 30.2 1 -123
42.7 29.7 15 -135
43.7 28.7 45 -165

posted by Matthew @ 12/20/2002 10:59:00 AM Comments: 0