"MORI's new voting intention figures based on all are 27% Tory -(-2 on our December figures), 44% Labour (+1) and 20% for the LibDems (-3). When we look at the views of the 51% who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Tories move up to 31%, while Labour drops slightly, to 40% and the Lib Dems tick up to 22%."
It's difficult to guage how much emphasis to put on the 'certain to vote' poll as opposed to the more normal 'all electorate' poll. To some extent it depends on how much the 'certain to vote' people change in composition and size from now to the election, and how accurate their 'certain to vote' description is. I'd imagine that the most accurate (least unaccurate?) result would be somewhere between the two, probably nearer the 'certain to vote' position. So my best estimate would be that the Tories are about 12% behind Labour, with the Lib Dems stuck down at 20%.
This is not good for the Tories -- at this stage in a parliament the opposition should be ahead, not 10% behind. It also puts them (on the certain to vote measure) worset than at the last election, even though Labour have had numerous problems over the last few months. For the Lib Dems I fear it just means they are electorally irrelevant and the polls showing them close to overtaking the Tories were rogue. For Labour, as I said, it is all pretty good news. The rest of the poll, looking at voter concerns, suggests there may be problems ahead, but for now Labour seem certain of another landslide election victory.
posted by Matthew @ 2/09/2003 10:42:00 AM
Comments: 0
