There have been 507 opinion polls published over the past decade, we were told. Of those, the Tories have led in only five - and those were all during the fuel insurrection of late 2000.
In some places they have been rubbed out. In 1983 Conservatives held 99 of 213 metropolitan seats (46% of the total), but by 2001 this was down to 18 of 198 (9%). In 1983 they held 14 seats in Wales, now it's zero. In Scotland in 1983, it was 21 seats, today it's maczip.
The electoral system itself is a disaster for them. To have even a small overall majority would require a 12% swing, but a mere 1% fall in their vote would see them lose a quarter of their seats. Then there is the demography. At the moment, the party is polling third among voters under 35. "What we don't yet know," said Ben Wegg-Prosser, "is whether these young voters will become Tories as they get older." If a lot of them don't, then the Conservative vote will, quite literally, die. So they need to change in a big way, and to embark upon this change soon
posted by Matthew @ 4/28/2003 03:47:00 PM
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