A few posts below I quoted the Guardian as saying 'To have even a small overall majority would require a 12% swing, but a mere 1% fall in their vote would see them lose a quarter of their seats.'
The first bit is so amazing (and the reasons why have been posted on this site before) that I accepted the second without checking. However having checked that I think it's wrong -- a 1% swing would lost them only 4 seats and it would require a 5% swing for them to lose a quarter, or 40 seats.
Tuesday, April 29, 2003
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