Tuesday, April 08, 2003

I very rarely follow Scottish politics, especially since devolution. However obviously they can impact on British politics through, among other things, Scotland's (overhefty) allocation of seats in UK general elections. Hence I was amazed by an article in the not-prone-to-hysteria Financial Times which opened with this:

"The Scottish Nationalists have overtaken Labour in opinion polls north of the border for the first time ever, raising the possibility of full independence for Scotland within the next four years.Two opinion polls carried out since Friday have put the SNP narrowly ahead of Labour in campaigning for the Scottish election on May 1. John Swinney, SNP leader, has promised a referendum on independence within two years if his party wins power."

Now I'm not sure how seriously to take all this. Scottish independence is a bit like nuclear fusion, always about to happen but actually never does. However if this is right then some obvious questions come to mind: would the Scots vote yes? do the English & Welsh have a say? what would it mean for Northern Ireland? What would it mean for Labour in a UK general election (bad is the answer there)? what would it mean for Britain (down to the world's sixth biggest economy for a start)? What would it mean for the euro in Britain?