posted by Matthew @ 4/30/2003 09:51:00 AM
Comments: 0
Wednesday, April 30, 2003
Ok here's my attempt to show what swing is required from the challenging party for the Tories to lose seats at the next general election. Sadly, there are too many Tory seats with Labour in second place for the names to be visible, but I think you get the idea (Skegness is the most marginal, William Hague's RIchmond the least). Now obviously this is not very sophisticated, it doesn't take into account boundary changes, or turnout issues, and furthermore in both Lab and Lib Dem challenging seats it keeps the third party's share of the vote constant. However I still can't see how a 1% fall in Conservative support could see the loss of 40 seats. I may have missed something fundamental...