The FT claims that senior US officials are downgrading the likelihood of finding major WMD in Iraq. I would caution the anti-war movement of getting too over excited about this, I sometimes wonder whether the Bush Administration plants such stories just before a major announcement in order to make its critics look foolish. Certainly however if its true that Iraq did not have WMD then everyone should welcome the news.
The other story of note is the disgraceful one that the Bush Administration is fighting tooth & nail to obstruct the investigation into the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on September 11th 2001. You have to wonder why?
As for the local elections, when they aren't in London it's hard to get too excited about them. However looking at how our tractor-driving, welly-wearing brethen voted, the only real conclusion is it's a good night for everyone in best Blairite fashion. It's clearly a good night for the Conservatives, as they did better than they expected (though one has to worry about IDS's ambition if he only expected a gain of 30 seats -- someone should ask him why) and local government is their only real hope at the moment (though few have mentioned their stunning -- that's the only word for it -- success in Scotland). The Lib Dems did ok too, particuarly in getting their vote out, though one wonders if that, couple with the low turnout, is the only reason they got a higher share than normal. For Labour it wasn't bad either, they avoided a Tory-style wipeout (though some commentators have said this as if everyone was expecting a Thatcher/Major style wipeout), and more importantly they are probably assured of IDS being the Opposition leader through to the general election, which guarantees they will win it.
One thing would worry me however if I were Labour tacticians, is whether Tony Blair is no longer an obvious electoral advantage? Probably he still wins them 10% of voters they wouldn't normally have from the centre-right, but is it now possible that he loses them 10% from the left?
Saturday, May 03, 2003
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