Thursday, July 31, 2003

Centre for poor statistics II

So to recap of the £6,000 Gordon Brown has cost the average househld as noted by the CPS, £1,900 is due to the fact that Gordon Brown has not managed to do what no other chancellor since 1970 (and probably since WWII) has managed to do -- make the UK economy grow as fast as the world economy.

What of the other £4,100? This comes from the fact that taxation averaged £250bn (or thereabouts) in 1993-1997, and £350bn in 1998-2002.

Now this is true. But let's note a few things. First, a large chunk of this comes from inflation. Indeed uprating £250 in line with inflation would bring us to about £280-£290bn. So £30-£40bn of the increase is merely inflation. It would be a sensible to say people in Argentine are 1000 times richer than they were five years' ago, merely because there peso incomes are that much higher.

Second, much of the tax increases were to stem Tory deficits. In the five years of Tory government the average annual deficit was £37bn. Under Labour that has become a surplus of £5bn. So there goes another £40bn.

As for the rest, it's simply a reflection of the growing economy. In fact aside from plugging the Tory deficit, Labour actually ran lower taxes than the Conservatives. One could argue that tax and spending shouldn't rise with the economy, but if they are to do that they should note that by the end of her reign Mrs Thatcher was costing the average taxpayer £6,000 or thereabouts (in today's money) per year more than the Callaghan government. The CPS rarely says that.