Friday, July 04, 2003

Clear blue water?

A YouGov poll for The Economist (subscription only) finds that a Tory policy of leaving the EU would gain them 8% (well the phrase is 'more likely to vote Conservative') support, enought to deny Labour a majority.

Obviously there are reasons to be sceptical. Saying it would make you more likely to vote Conservative to a YouGov poll is not the same as actually voting Conservative in a general election where an united Labour and Lib Dems will have been banging on about that policy, and many of the Shadow Cabinet will have been expressing reservations. But sill -- as The Economst says, will IDS take the plunge?

The poll also asked about the European Constitution. 18% were in favour, 44% against and 33% don't know enough yet. If the governmetn campaigned for it would make 15% more likely to vote yet, and 21% less likely. The only piece of good news for pro-Europeans is that a net 11% believe 'associate membership' of the EU would weaken Britain.