Monday, August 25, 2003

House prices

Wandering around Notting Hill made me think of another good reason to vote Conservative. Cheaper houses for the working man. This is good for me as I want to buy a house, and you can always rely on the Conservatives to bring prices down. In the first two years of John Major's government prices fell by 15%, which with inflation at between 11% and 4% represents a real fall of about 25%. The first two years of Thatcher saw prices rise by 14%, but Thatcher managed to get soaring inflation of 30% over that period, so saw real declines of 16% (her last two years were far worse -- 20%+ nominal fall, 30%+ real fall).

Hence when IDS takes over (hopefully earlier than in the four years he is predicting) we can safely expect another decline in real terms of about 20%. As inflation will only be about 4% over that period we can expect nominal declines of 16%. This should take the average London house from 210,000 pounds to under 180,000.