Matt T

Polls

Here is my attempt to graph all this year's opinion polls (except a New of the World Mori poll, which was done under a different methodology than their others, and which got a completely different result). Clearly the Labour lead has been evaporating, with the Tories the main gainer on two polling companies (and slight gainers on the other two's data), while the Lib Dems, after a bad start to the war, have been basically stable. I didn't show the others for clarity, but they've gone up slightly too.

Note that each polling company has only done about one poll a month (YouGov a few more) and the graph should be a bar chart not a line chart, but I've interpolated the data between polls to make it clearer. The key should show you which polling company is represented by each line, but basically Lab are red, the Tories blue and the Libs yellow, with the same variation to represent each poling company (i.e. dashed line, or squares etc).

Here I did a rolling average of the last 4 polls. One should be a litte careful here, that it's not weighted probably matters little as the polls sample sizes were sijmilar, but it also looks at the most recent 4 poll regardless of company, so its possible some data contains the same company's polls twice, which would distort the figures somewhat.

Here Anthony Wells takes you through the ways in which each poll is conducted

posted by Matthew @ 8/20/2003 10:21:00 AM Comments: 0