More polls
The Times rather overspins its latest poll as a victory for Michael Howard at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, with the parties on 40%, 35%, and 18%. It also says it shows the Tories have broken out of their 30-32% range of the last thousand years (or whatever).Comparing it with the previous month (36, 33%) it seems that Labour are taking more of the Lib Dems votes. Only if you look at the first poll taken after Howard's election, or the polls taken in IDS last few week's, when Labour were on 36%, the Tories on 30-31% and the Lib Dems on 25% is it split equally.
Looking back over the first half of the year of the polls done by Populus the Tories were often on 34% (there is one clear rogue poll where they are on 29%), with Labour just a few points ahead. If anything this is Tony Blair's triumph more than Michael Howard's (unless you wish to argue that the fear of Howard winning is so great Labour supporters are returning to the fold after an anti-war dalliance with the Lib Dems).
posted by Matthew @ 1/06/2004 08:38:00 AM
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