A quick roundup
A few things worth noting.First, back in January I tried to come up with an estimate of the number of readers British political blogs have. I decided that, based on the number of comments, that it was probably between 2,500 and 5,000 a day, with an upper boundary of 10,000. The news that Peter Cuthbertson came second in the Guardian's weblog competion with 89 votes and that only around 500 votes were counted in all (congratulations to him) strengthens this view. Also congrats to The Guardian for getting Truth Unvarnished to take that ridiculous strapline off.
Second, most opinion polls now show the Tories in the lead, and Anthony (link on the left) has suggested that given the latest ICM poll in the News of the World showed them neck-and-neck, and ICM are usually more in Labour's favour, this lead should widen over the coming weeks. How then has this changed the spread offered by IG Index?
Not as much as you might think. Currently the mid-points in seats are Labour 341, the Tories 238 and the Lib Dems 53 - a Labour majority of 22 or 36 depending on whether the boundary changes have happened. Back in December it was 341/223/65, so essentially the Conservatives have gained at the Libs' expense. Back in June it was 352, 203, 73. Should have bought Tory (although given the spread each way is 10 you still wouldn't have made much money)
posted by Matthew @ 2/12/2004 05:49:00 PM
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