Dependency ratios
A lot of stupid things are said about worsening dependency ratios, i.e the ratio of people who can't work (the retired/children) to the ratio of those who can work (those between 16 and 60/65).In fact the effects are going to be relatively small. The current dependency ratio is about 625, made up of about 320 children and 305 pensioners. The number by 2040 will be just over 700, and by 2070 about 750, with all of the increase coming from pensioners. This is not a huge change (though of course there are differences in consumption between pensioners and children that are not unimportant).
It also shows the impact policy can have. The simple measure of raising the female retirement age to 65 between 2010 and 2020 lowers the dependency ratio by about 100. Raising both to 67 would actually make it lower than today. Increasing immigration continues to lower it annually (compared to what it would be).
posted by Matthew @ 5/09/2004 10:38:00 AM
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