Polls
An excellent round-up of the differences in methodology of our opinion polling firms by Anthony Wells. We've been discussing this recently, and one thing that has become clear is that the current opinion polls are pretty similar in their overall findings, but choose to interpret the result differently. Some take the view that turnout will only be those who say they are certain, or near-certain to vote, and others that those who say they are less certain, or unlikely to vote will see some turnout, albeit not necessarily a very high percentage. Tories are more likely to turn out so the former give them a higher share of the vote, and on current trends seem more likely.A chart of how turnout affects voting intention (using the Feb ICM poll) is here.
posted by Matthew @ 5/04/2004 04:33:00 PM
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