Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Defence cuts again

Now we have the spending review confirmed we can see what will happen if there is an election next year and the Tories take over in terms of defence spending. If you recall Oliver Letwin, the Shadow Chancellor, and Michael Howard, who you all know, have decided in order to fund education and NHS expansion they will freeze all other discretionary spending.

Making some quick calculations this is my forecast 'cut' in the Tories plans over Labour. It's larger than it was because of the real-terms increases announced by Gordon Brown yesterday. It almost certainly slightly overestimates the cut because I have not allowed for non-discretionary defence spending, of which there must be some. Netherless we are talking around £2.5bn by 2007-8.

Fiscaly Labour Tories Tory 'cut'
2004-5 29,710 29,710 ------
2005-6 30,888 30,888 ------
2006-7 32,067 30,888 -1,179
2007-8 33,447 30,888 -2,559