Opinion polls
Looking at the latest US opinion poll one sees this remarkable finding:2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think
Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No
to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin.
8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 *
85% of registered voters say they are certain to vote! This seems much higher than your average turnout in a Presidential election.
Then I found that only 70% of US voters are registerd, which brings you back down to a more likely turnout of 60% of all voters.
Also this question asked the (diminishing) band of Nader supports who they would support if their candidate dropped out. Remarkably it's split evenly between Bush and Kerry.
Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:
Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/1/04 45 52 0 * 2 1 1
7/25/04 49 48 0 * 2 1 1
6/20/04 45 53 0 * 1 1 *
5/23/04 47 49 * * 1 1 1
4/18/04 49 48 * * 2 1 *
posted by Matthew @ 8/03/2004 06:48:00 AM
Comments: 0
