Tories 8% behind
The latest Guardian/ICM poll puts the Tories 8% behind Labour, on 30%, their worst showing since May 2003 (in the wake of the then-sucessful Iraq war).The situation is in some ways worse than this. Like many pollsters ICM adjust their polls for the likelihood to vote. There are no figures out yet for what an unadjusted poll would look like, but a Labour lead of 10% is perfectly possible. Although the adjusted polls reflect more accurately a likely election result, the unadjusted polls show how the Conservative message is going down in the country at large.
Why so bad? Two factors appear to me to have been overlooked, and both perhaps benefit Labour even though they are generally though to benefit the Tories.
First, house prices. It will not have bypassed a large section of the population that house prices are looking weaker than they have done for a long time -- an even longer time than the Tories have looked electable. This it is generally argued should boost the Tories, as high house prices help the government as they contribute to a feeling of well-being in the population, make people forget tax rises etc. The Tories in government were almost destroyed by plunging house prices.
Now so far house price falls have been tiny, taking us back to July. But even if they were to fall 20% I think it might even boost the governent's popularity. For most people know that the Bank of England sets interest rates, and furthermore in troubled economic times who would you rather have steering the economy, Gordon Brown with his impressive track record, or Oliver Letwin, who is happy to believe that people move house every year and has no idea about taxation levels in the economy?
Second, the ongoing conflict in Iraq. It's generally believed that as the conflict gets worse Labour's popularity will fall. But again this seems wishful thinking. The war is now history, and those who will never vote Labour because of it have already gone. The current conflict is clearly going to happen whoever is in power, and as it gets nastier, who would you rather have in charge, the resolute, determined and popular in the White House Tony Blair, or the opportunist flip-flopper Michael Howard?
posted by Matthew @ 11/18/2004 09:55:00 AM
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