Mobiles Matrix
Via PopBitch I find this amusing pyramid ...sorry matrix...scheme to get cheap mobile phones or Ipods...Basically you buy something for at least £20 and you get placed on a list. Each time someone buys something you move up the list. When you get to the top you get sent a free mobile phone or Ipod (your choice).
According to the website, 'Once a certain amount of new users sign up (normally between 13-34) the person at the top of the list receives their mobile phone'. They argue it is not a pyramid scheme because you are under no obligation to refer other people.
This seems to be a legal nicety. The reason pyramid schemes are pyramid scheme is because at each stage you need a bigger and bigger number of entrants to keep the thing going, and entrants who believe they'll be a bigger and bigger number following them. This applies to this scheme. The company says it takes 'normally between 13-34' people to sign up to get a free phone/mp3 (it depends on the value of the product). Thus when one person was on the list, it only took 13 to 34 people to join for him/her to get his/her free product. The 14th person on the list required 14*13 or 182 people, or possibly 14*34 or nearly 500 people, that 500th person might require 15,000, and the 15,000th 500,000, and I wouldn't fancy my chances at this point.
Does it matter given you are entered for free? Well not, but... For £20 you get a CD of 'ringtones and images'; which is probably available elsewhere cheaper than $20. For £35, you get a 'bluetooth dongle. The first search for this in google returns one for £17.
So essentially you are paying £18 for the priviledge of entering the matrix. Is it worth it? That would depend on the probability of you getting your product. Clearly the first person to sign up has done well.
As an example let's take the ipod mini. Sixteen people joined on the 16/04/2004, and of those 14/15 have been sent their ipods (one is 'being dispatched'). So we know not enough people have signed up to send it to the 16th person.
304 people have signed up, so if we divide 304/15 we get 20 people needed to be signed up to get an Ipod mini (i.e. 320 would be needed for the 16th person to get his).
So if we joined now, at 305, we would need an additional 6100 people to join before we'd get our Ipod mini. A bit of a gamble, particularly because the (say) 5000th person would have to believe 100,000 people will sign up to get his, and for that the 100,000th person would have to believe 20m people, etc...
ps Of course rationally no-one should ever join a pyramid scheme. The 20 millionth person shouldn't join, because he'll never get his money back. The 2 millionth shouldn't join because the 20 millionth won't, and hence the 200,000th shouldn't join because the 2 millionth won't, etc, etc. It doesn't quite work like this.
posted by Matthew @ 12/16/2004 01:58:00 PM
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