Sunday, January 16, 2005

Tories in trouble

The remarkable resignation of Robert Jackson MP, a former minister in Mrs Thatcher's government, piles on the agony for Michael Howard. Jackson's withering resignation letter attacks the Tories on four counts -- their 'dangerous' views on Europe, their 'incoherent' public services' policy, 'wobbling' on Iraq and perhaps most damaging, that they 'deserved better leadership'.

Adding to the party's woe a News of the World poll of marginal constituencies (on rather a small sample) suggests they could lose seats at the next election.

Can anything be done? Clearly it is too late to get a new leader, and in any case it is not clear who would be better. Howard has his faults -- his opportunism, his lack of tactical awareness, his unpopularity with the public. But in the absence of Ken Clarke riding to the rescue the Tories have few other options. John Redwood is widely despised, David Davis is too right-wing, Oliver Letwin is gaffe-prone. There is William Hague, an able and clever man, but who as leader was probably the worst Tory since World War II.

On policies, I think Jackson is guilty of the incoherence he alleges of the Tory party. Take Iraq. The war is highly unpopular, and Tony Blair's conduct throughout has been abysmal. The Sunday Telegraph, probably the British press's most pro-war newspaper, today reports that the country is on the verge of civil war. Many of the problems were foreseen, and warned to the PM in advance, so the Tories would have a strong case in attacking not the policy but the implementation. It would also win back some Lib Dem voters. The Americans would not like it, but Michael Howard has already been banned from the White House so what else can they do?