Matt T

Asylum and Immigration

Immigration is considered by most commentators a major concern of many voters, and opinion polls -- by and large -- tend to support that view. A YouGov poll found that 74% of voters believe too many immigrants were coming to the country.

Or do they? Digging a little deeper 52% said that it was because there were too may asylum seekers, while only 7% thought it was because too many work-related immigrants were coming in.

This is an important finding as it allows us to estimate what levels people are comfortable with. Take 2003, the last year for which full year figures exist. In that year there were about 120,000 immigrants allowed to enter for work reasons, and only 49,405 asylum applications made. Indeed this year asylum applications are likely to be less than in 1995, when Michael Howard was the Home Secretary (see chart -- 2004 based on simple scale-up of three quarters worth of data).



Furthermore as the Conservatives like to remind us, most of these applications are rejected. Indeed in 2003 due to backlogs there were actually more rejections than applications. Over the last 10 years those accepted (which is not just asylum but also exceptional leave to appeal and other categories) have average 13,500 a year.

Hence we can safely assume that around 37% of voters (of nearly half of those who believe immigration is too high) believe immigration is too high because around 13,500 people are granted asylum each year. To use the language of MigrationWatch, this is a new Birmingham every 80 years.

On the other hand only 3.5% of Britons believe immigration is too high because there are too many immigrants coming here to work. So we can safely say that most Britons think 120,000 a year -- a new Birmingham ever 8 years -- is not too high. Indeed one presumes many would be happy with a higher figure.

Hopefully Michael Howard, who is the only man committed to telling us the truth (incidentally in this context 'speaking the truth' has a long and inglorious history) on this subject will inform the country of these facts in the coming weeks and months.

posted by Matthew @ 2/02/2005 01:07:00 PM Comments: 0