No Tory revival?
Rather strangely despite the Tories' storming run in the opinion polls over at Sporting Index the forecast Tory seats in the General Election are lower than they were in 2003...17/10/2003 219
27/6/2003 203
12/11/2003 223
Today 197
Update: [The polls don't really explain this lack of faith among the spread-betters] On some Michael Howard is indeed still doing worse in the polls than IDS, but on most he is doing slightly better. Taking the average of the two months' polls before Howard took over Sep/Oct 2003 and the latest two months' Jan/Feb then YouGov have the Tories going from 33% to 32.5%, while Mori have them going from 35% to 34.5% [correction - Mori actually had them on 33% in Sep/Oct (IDS had a shocking 31% poll which hastened the end of his run IIRC), so Howard is up 1.5% with these polls]. Labour have gained 2.5% and 1.5% respectively.
One explanation would be that the spread-betters in 2003 expected the Tory revival to be stronger than it has. Another would be that they don't know what they are talking about.
posted by Matthew @ 2/28/2005 09:12:00 PM
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