Should Tony go?
Harry has argued that (mainly) middle-class Labour supporters are indulging in their pet project of getting Blair over Iraq at the risk of the Conservatives winning the election, which will be at the expense of the welfare of those less well-off.If [John Harris isn't right about there being no risk of a Tory government from not voting Labour] then on the morning after Michael Howard enters Number Ten, I'd like to take Harris, his nameless former Labour Minister, and those who followed their voting advice, on a tour of Britain's most deprived areas. While congratulating themselves on scoring a point over the Iraq war they can explain to the working class school-leavers, the single mums and the pensioners how life is going to be under a Tory government.
Let's say the assumptions are true. There are two problems I have with this.
First, the election timing is of Tony Blair's choosing, as long as it is before May 2006. Although no-one appears to remember this, he doesn't have to have an election for a year. There is a Labour government with rock-solid majority of 160. Why risk it?
Second, it's difficult to do much about it. If a million voters have decided not to vote Labour over the war in Iraq then there are a million minds to change. This is not going to be easy.
There is of course another way. Most polls have shown that if Gordon Brown was Labour leader the election would be a walk-over. If Blair was to resign now, say over "ill-health", it would give Brown plenty of time to revitalise the campaign and go for (say) an Autumn election.
So the argument can be turned around. If Tony Blair decides to ask for an early dissolution of Parliament, despite Labour having a huge majority, and fights the election as Labour leader despite mounting evidence that he is costing the party support, then on the morning after Michael Howard enters Number Ten, I'd like to take Blair, and his cheerleaders on a tour of Britain's most deprived areas. While congratulating themselves on scoring a point over the Iraq war they can explain to the working class school-leavers, the single mums and the pensioners how life is going to be under a Tory government.
ps Incidentally I think the assumptions broadly speaking are wrong and Labour's position is stronger than many fear. Of all the opinion polls since the end of 2004 Labour have increased their lead in four, and it has decreased in two. On average it has increased. The two where it has decreased are the two most respected and well-established politcal pollsters, ICM and Mori. But the two where it has increased the most, YouGov [edited] and Populus, are the ones that Tories were telling us were more accurate back when IDS was leader.
posted by Matthew @ 3/13/2005 05:50:00 PM
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