Monday, May 02, 2005

Election four days to go

The polls have moved decisively in Labour's favour. The British Election Study which is the most favourable poll to the Tories (it's by YouGov, and it's weighted for turnout) shows the gap widening. Populus, the Tories' favourite pollsters, now have a 13% gap -- 10% on certain to votes -- which would mean Labour increasing their majority.

Why the shift? Populus argue that it is a reaction to Howard's incessant negative campaigning -- the unpleasant racist tone plus the fact that the public know him to be a liar, so find his allegations hypocritical. Also clearly Labour supporters angered about the war have drifted back to the party, and they outnumber the "Decent Left" who are now moving to the Conservatives.