Wednesday, May 11, 2005


Using the excellent resource from Pippa Norris who has already managed to get the full 2005 election results up, I've done some charts which may or may not be revealing.

This one shows the change in Labour vote in each constituency compared with the change in Lib vote. There's a pretty good correlation -- larger rise in Lib vote, larger fall in Lab vote.

A similar story can be seen from the relationship between the Con and Lib vote shares.

Here's the interesting one. This is the change in the Lab vote against the Con vote. Not really much of a relationship at all (if anything it is positive).

A couple of others. Labour's vote did worse where there was a large Muslim population (this could easily represent other factors).

and where there was an 'affluent' population (ditto)

The Conservative and Ukip have a very slight relationship

Nevertheless the Tories' position is not good. In terms of their share of the vote it rose by about 0.6%. The average of constituencies' change in the share of the vote was just 0.2%, with nearly as many declines as increases.