Monday, May 02, 2005

Political betting

Advocates of online betting markets being better predictors of election results than opinion polls usually ignore the fact that online betters have the advantage of opinion polls (and thus it makes sense they might be better as they should utilise both the polls and some informed knowledge).

Sometimes however you don't have opinion polls. As far as I know (this could change tomorrow though) there have been no opinion polls in Bethnal Green & Bow. So it will be interesting to see how accurate the Betfair market is, which is predicting only a small chance of a Galloway victory.