Quick conclusion
Essentially the story of the night remained the story at the start of the night, ie trust the polls, so see the post below. A quick roundupLabour - Labour had an ok night, though the BBC have decided otherwise. They have won a safe majority for an historic third term, they remained -- miles from many Tory fantasies - the largest party in terms of the vote, and furthermore everyone in the party knows the reason for the fall in both, which is unlikely to happen again. Nevertheless they will be back with a majority of almost 100 less, and will find it very hard to come back in some of the seats where they lost a lot of votes, e.g. London. Tony Blair obviously had a less good night, though even there it's probably better than everyone thinks tonight. 55% of the seats on 36% of the vote though. Can we have PR?
Conservative - A good night by their new standards, ie it's the worst general election night in their history since 1945 other than 1997/2000, but compared to William Hague's effort it's a landslide. Most of their gains come from a Labour collapse, as nothing exciting in the share of the vote which is less than 1% higher than little William Hague (33%), but it didn't fall below 30%, and the party remains stuck outside the South except a few minor shocks. However importantly there is evidence that the unthinking middle classes, who tend to populate the South-West of London (the more Hackett tops the better), and parts of the South-East are swinging back to the 'low tax' party. Yet if you can't add votes with Labour this weak, when can you? Thus they probably need a new leader sooner rather than later.
Lib Dems - Difficult to say. The best of times, and the worst of times Again given the competition perhaps should have done better. But each time you make gains, it's easier to hold them. Nick Barlow follows this much more closely than I do, and he's got no idea.
Respect - Wow. Oh dear. Well, whatever else you can say about George Galloway he's a survivor. It's also the (see posts below) the end of any residual belief in betting markets knowing anything.
Conclusion - Quite possibly a month's campaign did nothing to change anything. The story of the night is the collapse in the Labour vote. The Torie remain becalmed, but at least they're in a nicer part of the sea. The Lib Dems need PR, as do we all. From my own perspective, it's a perfect result. Labour home with a large but sharply reduced majority (which cannot be blamed on me!), the non-bigot vote remaining near 60%, the Tories strong in Battersea.
Update: Sorry nothing about Wales, Scotland, and N.Ireland. Have no idea about them. I don't think most N.Ireland seats have declared. Would try harder but in a rush to go to Paris to chew over the result with a croissant.
posted by Matthew @ 5/06/2005 05:50:00 AM
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