Matt T

The Ashes

Betfair (and most other bookmakers are doing something similar) are currently offering these odds on the 5th Test

Australia win - 2.64
England win - 4.2
Draw - 2.54

In other words if you put £10 on England to win, and they do, you'll get £42 back, which is £32 profit.

This seems to imply that the chance of Australia winning is twice that of England. One can see an argument that Australia are more likely to win than England - McGrath is back, Jones is out, Australia need to win to retain the Ashes, (perhaps most importantly) England only need a draw, all three England victories have been close. But still, England have outplayed them in the last three tests (once with McGrath, though admittedly an out of form one).

Much of it must be residual belief that Australia are the better team. This has been a feature of the odds all series. In the second test, even as they were battling to avoid the follow-on they were still favourites.

England fans however will be relieved to know that I will not be placing a bet, as that is a surefire way of assuring an Australian victory.

posted by Matthew @ 9/07/2005 04:17:00 PM Comments: 0