Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Opinion polls

For some reason Anthony Wells believes he can take a holiday, but hopefully he can answer a question I have when he gets back. Today's Guardian poll shows Labour 6% ahead, and most polls for the last few weeks have shown a similar result.

Yet Anthony showed us a lot of polls before Gordon Brown took over which suggested that he, and the Labour party, would be be less popular once he was Prime Minister. A lot of Conservatives and Blairites I think staked a lot on these. So the queston is really, are such polls always going to be meaningless (surely not, as I remember John Major had good polls before and after he took over), and if not, why were they so wrong this time - because people have been impressed by Brown more than they expected, or (my favourite) they are more relieved about Blair going than they expected? Or is there something else?

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