House prices
The BBC reports the Halifax's findings that house prices were flat in January, and up 4.5% year-on-year. The reporting of this article is by no means up there with the worse of house price reporting, when year-on-year changes were given headline billing when the monthly data was showing something very different (or quarterly). But:House prices were unchanged in January compared to the previous month, according to the Halifax bank. However, the country's biggest mortgage lender said that house prices were rising at an annual rate of 4.5%.
is still not as clear as it should be. I think they should say:
House prices were unchanged in January compared to the previous month, according to the Halifax bank. However, due to strong increases in the first half of 2007, the country's biggest mortgage lender said that house prices still 4.5% higher than a year ago.
The news is in fact a little worse than that. House prices are now lower than they were in June, ie the six-monthly % change (Jan 08 on Jul 07) has been negative 1%, although on a three-monthly basis they are basically unchanged. If you take out the seasonal adjustment, which after all is how houses are bought in the real world, the average house price is now £10k, or 5%, less than it was at its peak in August 2007.
The headlines should get more excitable. If house prices remain flat in Feb, then the year-on-year change will fall to 2.5%, in March to 1.3%, and then in April they will be unchanged year-on-year.
Labels: house prices, New
posted by Matthew @ 2/05/2008 08:41:00 AM
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