Friday, November 14, 2008

Currency speculation update

I am being beseiged with requests to update you on how the currency speculation is going. My loyal readers will remember that this took the form of investing in a Citibank dollar account when the exchange rate with sterling was higher than 2. On average the exchange rate I received was 2.01 to the pound. Today it is about 1.48, which means a gain of about 36%.

That's not bad although it doesn't compare to my one very successful investment of the last four years which was the short oil ETF, which is up something like 150% in about four months. Both however might have involved rather an unacceptable amount of risk - the short oil ETF was suspended for a while whilst it seemed owners of it might just become another unsecured creditor of AIG, whilst it seems Citibank itself is rather teetering, and as a foreign bank account owner I am not sure what the regulations are.

ps After this week's further collapse, sterling's euro exchange rate in terms of the old DM is now around 2.26, just off the (1993? 1994?) low of about 2.20. This is just 7.6 francs to the pound - to get 10 you need 1.52 euros to a pound.

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