US election
On Betfair at 13:05 I can place $1,000 on Mccain to win at 12.5 to 1. On Intrade I can sell him at 11.0.So if we sell $1,375 of McCain on Intrade and buy $1,000 of Mccain on betfair, do I work it out correctly that:
If McCain wins we get $12,500 on betfair, and lose 1,375/11 * 1000, which is 12,500 on Intrade. So we break even.
If Obama wins we lose $1,000 on betfair, but make $1,375 on Intrade.
I suppose there are costs, which presumably could be paid for by reducing our Intrade bet a bit. And maybe the combined impact of credit risk and not having read the contract might make up the rest. Or have I just got my numbers wrong?
I have no money so this is theoretical only.
ps One problem might be if you can't bet in dollars on Betfair.
Labels: betting
posted by Matthew @ 11/03/2008 01:04:00 PM
Comments: 1
